U.S. Treasury Yields Surpass 5%

For an extended period, the stock market displayed an unstoppable momentum, with the S&P 500 index soaring more than 50% from early 2023 to the end of 2024, accumulating an astonishing $18 trillion in value during this phaseHowever, Wall Street may be facing a disruptive factor that threatens this remarkable ascent: U.STreasury yields have surpassed the 5% mark.

For months, stock traders largely overlooked warnings from the bond market, focusing instead on unexpected windfalls brought by tax cuts and the seemingly limitless potential of artificial intelligenceYet, as Treasury yields climb to this ominous threshold, stock values began to decline, placing risk at the forefront of traders' concerns last week.

The 20-year U.STreasury yield broke beyond the 5% barrier on Wednesday, eventually rebounding past this threshold on Friday, marking its highest level since November 2, 2023. At the same time, the yield on 30-year U.STreasury bonds briefly surged above 5%, achieving its peak since October 31, 2023. Since the Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest rate cuts in mid-September, these yields have notably increased by approximately 100 basis points, whereas the federal funds rate has decreased concurrently by 100 basis points.

Jeff Blazek, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Neuberger Berman's Multi-Asset Strategy, commented on this atypical situation, noting that over the past 30 years, mid- and long-term bond yields have generally remained stable or experienced slight increases following a series of rate cuts from the Fed.

Traders are keenly monitoring the policy-sensitive 10-year U.STreasury yield, which recently reached its highest level since October 2023 and is inching towards 5%. Fears are mounting that surpassing this critical level could trigger a notable correction in the stock marketThe last time the yield briefly crossed this threshold was in October 2023; prior to that occurrence, one must look back to July 2007.

Matt Peron, Director of Global Solutions at Janus Henderson, stated, “If the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5%, investors will instinctively sell stocks

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This situation could take several weeks or even months to resolve, during which time the S&P 500 index might drop by 10%.”

The rationale behind such concerns is straightforward; rising bond yields enhance the allure of U.STreasury securities, while simultaneously escalating the costs for corporations to raise funds.

Last Friday, the repercussions for the stock market were palpable, with the S&P 500 index declining by 1.5%, marking the most significant single-day drop since mid-December, erasing virtually all of the gains that September excitement had imparted to 2025's performance.

In this tumultuous environment, Kristy Akullian, Head of Investment Strategy at BlackRock iShares, asserted that while there’s nothing magical about the 5% threshold—beyond the psychological barrier—perceptual obstacles might create "technical barriers." This suggests that rapid fluctuations in yields could frustrate any upward momentum in the stock market.

Investors are witnessing a striking anomaly: the yield of the S&P 500 is currently 1 percentage point lower than the yield on 10-year U.STreasury bonds—an occurrence unseen since 2002. In other words, the returns on significantly less risky assets compared to the U.S. stock market benchmark have not seemed this favorable for years.

Mike Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy at Glenmede Trust, pointed out, "Once yields rise, it becomes increasingly difficult to rationalize valuation levelsIssues can arise if profit growth begins to decelerate."

Hence, it's no surprise that strategists and portfolio managers predict a bumpy road ahead for the stock marketMike Wilson from Morgan Stanley forecasts that the stock market will struggle over the next six months, while Citi's wealth division is advising clients that bonds may present attractive buying opportunities.

Recent robust employment data has prompted economists to revise their expectations for interest rate cuts this year downward, making the path towards a 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury more tangible

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Yet, this predicament is not solely a concern for the Federal ReserveThe global bond sell-off is rooted in persistent inflation rates, hawkish stances from central banks, soaring government debt, and the extreme uncertainty brought by incoming administrations.

Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert, stated, "When you're in a disadvantageous position, a yield surpassing 5% signifies that everything is unpredictable."

Equity investors now face a pressing question: are there serious buyers willing to step in, and when might they do so?

Rick de los Reyes, a portfolio manager at Raymond James, commented, "The real question is how we will develop nextIf interest rates hover between 5% and 6%, concerns will mount; however, if rates stabilize around 5% and eventually decline, everything will be fine."

Market experts contend that the crux of the issue isn't merely rising yields, but rather the underlying reasons behind this increaseYields that ascend gradually with an improving U.S. economy can be uplifting for stocksIn contrast, a rapid rise in yields spurred by fears surrounding inflation, federal deficits, and policy ambiguity is a troubling indicator.

In recent years, every instance of a swift yield increase has prompted stock sell-offsThis time, the distinction lies in a sense of complacency amongst investors, as demonstrated by their optimistic outlook amid valuation bubbles and policy uncertainties—placing the stock market in a precarious position.

"When you observe rising prices, a robust job market, and an overall strong economy, all signs point towards potential inflation," reflected Eric Diton, President of Wealth Alliance.

One potential refuge for stock investors could lie within the sector that has driven most of the returns over the past few years: large tech companiesThe so-called 'Magnificent Seven'—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla—continue to showcase rapid profit growth alongside substantial cash flows

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